Baltimore Zillow Zestimates Still Off

Baltimore Zillow Zestimates are still often off from true value, despite the change in algorithms last year.

“Desktop Valuations” are a quick way to look at the potential value of a home, but they do not take many factors into consideration, and some of the things they DO use to determine a value should not be used!

I answer questions on the Zillow site, and so many times the questions come from a place of, “Why, in my townhouse community where the houses are very much the same, is my neighbor’s worth $XXX and mine is worth $45,000 less despite mine being an end unit with an additional bump-out?”

That is a very good question, and one that doesn’t have a good answer. The algorithm takes into account the taxes you pay and when the house last changed hands. If a house hasn’t changed hands in some time, the taxes generally are lower, and that would bring the “value” of that house down. That just doesn’t seem right, does it?

Next to this is an example of the “range” of value for one house I found. If a professional real estate agent walked into your house and told you they thought it might sell for somewhere between $391,000 and $740,000, would you feel comfortable that the agent knew your market?

How about the houses “for sale nearby.” Do these look like they belong together as a picture of a particular Towson community to you? They seem to be a random selection of homes that happen to be in the same zip code.

 

 

The biggest issue is the quality of the Baltimore Zestimates.

As you can see here, Baltimore Zestimates are within 5% of an actual sales price only 42.6% of the time. They are within 10% of an actual sales price 66.4% of the time. They are within 20% of a sales price 83% of the time. These are with a median error of 6.1%.

Think about what that means.

On a $400,000 sales price, the Zestimate may show $380,000 or $420,000 — but again, that is only 42.6% of the time.

To get above 50%, you have to go within 10% of the actual sales price. So on that same $400,000 house, a Zestimate 66.4% of the time will be from $360,000-440,000.

To get to the closer 83%, you have to bring that out to 20% of a sales price. That could drop the Zestimate down to $320,000. Would you as a Baltimore seller be happy with that if your house were truly worth $400,000? How about a homebuyer? Would a Baltimore homebuyer be happy to pay $480,000 for a house that is really worth $400,000? Probably not. And the buyer’s mortgage company most likely wouldn’t let it happen, because an actual appraisal would most likely be close to the true market value of $400,000.

And don’t forget — that is with a median error of 6.1%, or approximately $24,000 give-or-take, on that $400,000 house.

Real estate everywhere is LOCAL. Hyper-local even.

Baltimore real estate values can be different street-by-street!

For a true understanding of your house’s value, don’t count on automated valuation websites. Contact me for a true idea of you Baltimore house value. I’d love to help!

 

Would you like to know more and see additional Zillow issues in the Baltimore area? See my past posts on incorrect Towson Zillow Zestimates for details.

This Month in Real Estate February 2012

This Month in Real Estate for February 2012 has been released!

Home sales in January were on pace to have 4.6 million homes sell in 2012, up from the pace of 4.4 million in December. The median home sale price was at $165,000, up $1,000 over January 2012 This Month in Real Estate. The average interest rate dropped slightly to 3.88% from 3.91% last month.

The top news, presented by Jay Papasan, adds onto last month’s topic of what buyers are looking for in a home to the eco-friendly things buyers would like to see. They are:

1) Double Paned Windows

2) Energy Efficient Appliances

3) Upgraded Insulation

4) Efficient Heating & Cooling Systems

5) Solar Power

In News You Can Use with Bryon Ellington, he discusses your credit report, and what you can do to manage your numbers and keep them as high as they can be. Your credit scores often have a large part in determining loan rates, loan availability, and loan terms.

Things to do to keep your credit shining or improve your credit score:

A) Be consistent and punctual with payments.

B) Keep your balances low.

C) Don’t take out more credit cards than you need.

D) Be careful of opening or charging to accounts if you are under contract (talk to your mortgage lender before opening accounts or making significant purchases!)

E) Watch your credit-to-debt ratio. (Don’t take on too much debt!)

For more information on how to buy a home in Baltimore, contact me. I would be happy to help!

Upbeat Housing Outlook 2012

USA Today reports that economists, banking and building executives are thinking optimistically of the real estate market in the coming year, and that the housing industry may be finally close to hitting the bottom.

The article does clarify, though, that prices are still expected to drop in many areas, but there should be more home sales, and more houses being built, which are usually indicators of the beginnings of a recovery.

The reason prices are expected to fall in many areas would be due to the large number of foreclosures still out there. Many were delayed because of the “robo-signing” scandal last year, but will be moved forward this year.

The economy is an important piece in the housing recovery. Last month, the unemployment rate dropped to 8.5%, and 200,000 jobs were added. These are good signs for the economy, and housing usually follows economic recovery.

There are many factors that affect the housing recovery, and Baltimore real estate is extremely local. Some neighborhoods, like those I’ve noted in Towson home sales in December and Timonium December home sales, have seen some increases or at least stabilization.

Real estate is extremely local — as much as street-by-street or neighborhood-by-neighborhood.

To find out where your Baltimore house currently stands in the housing recovery, please contact me. I would be happy to help!

This Month in Real Estate January 2012

This Month in Real Estate January 2012 has been released!

Home sales activity was down to 4.4 million homes last month, a drop from the pace set from December 2011 This Month in Real Estate of 4.97 million. It makes me wonder about the number of sales that may have been canceled last month. It is up, though, according to the numbers, 12% over the same period of 2010. The median home sale price was $164,000. The average interest rate for December was 3.91%, down from November.

The Top News, presented by Jay Papasan, is about home buyers, and the surprising things they look for in a home.

Most homebuyers start their searches online, and it takes, on average, about three months to find a home. Weather is less of a factor than in past years, because so many buyers view the house and the areas online to see if they are places they would want to consider.

In News You Can Use with Bryon Ellington, he discusses why listing your house NOW instead of waiting for the Spring may be a good decision.

1) As noted earlier, it takes, on average, about three months for a buyer to find their house. That will be Spring — so you are listing for those who are looking to settle in that time frame!

2) You have less competition. Many people wait to list in the Spring. If you list now, there are fewer houses for buyers to choose from — which may make yours more attractive!

3) Lenders, appraisers, movers, home inspectors, contractors, and other vendors also see a decline in business during these months. Therefore your sale/home/buyer gets more attention.

If you’d like more information on whether now is a good time to sell your house in Towson, contact me. I would be happy to help!

Fannie Mae and Other Banks Postpone Foreclosures Through the Holidays

Fannie Mae is one of a few banks who have decided to put a moratorium on evicting those facing foreclosure from December 19, 2011-January 2, 2012.

Executive Vice President, Terry Edwards, was quoted in a CNNMoney article stating that “No family should have to give up their home during this holiday season.”

Others also putting evictions on hold are Freddie Mac, Chase Mortgage, and Wells Fargo. Dates for each bank may be different, and only applies to those they actually own, not just service. If they service loans for other banks or companies, they have to follow the wishes and rules of those companies.

If you are facing foreclosure in Baltimore, please contact me. You may have other options available to you!

Keep Your Fireplace and Furnace Safely Running This Winter

Winter tends to bring thoughts of a cozy fire in the fireplace, and warmth coming from your furnace.

There are a few steps you should take to ensure your family’s safety while staying comfortable this cold time of year. Thanks to Inman News for these tips!

If you use a wood burning fireplace, make sure to get it inspected and cleaned by a chimney sweep. If you need recommendations for a reputable chimney sweep in Baltimore, please let me know. There are a number of very notable ones in the area who have done good work for past clients of mine.

You should also close the damper when the fireplace is not in use.

A chimney cap is a good idea, because it can prevent animals from getting in (and building their nest or home in there!)

Use dry hardwood to burn. Apparently fir and pine tree wood burns very hot, and may deposit creosote in the chimney, which could be a fire hazard. Also do not burn construction material. Treated wood may have chemicals that could be toxic if burned.

If you have a gas furnace, it is very important to have it checked and maintained by a professional HVAC contractor annually. Again, if you need a recommendation for an HVAC contractor in Baltimore, please let me know! We have had our gas furnaces serviced by a few different companies and have been pleased with both.

Make sure to change your filter. Your furnace will function better and blow cleaner air. If you have pets (especially dogs that shed, like we do), make sure to change it every 30 days (that goes throughout the year, not just winter!)

Do not store combustible items near the furnace.

Also, if you have a gas furnace or gas fireplace, make sure you have at least one carbon monoxide detector. Carbon monoxide is odorless and colorless, so protect your family by having detectors, and testing them at least yearly.

Have a safe & warm winter! For Baltimore real estate needs, contact me. I’m here to help!

This Month in Real Estate December 2011

This Month in Real Estate December 2011 has been released!

Home sales activity was at a pace of 4.97 million for the year, which is up slightly from last month. The median home sale price was $163,000, down from $165,000 for This Month in Real Estate November 2011. Average interest rate was 4%, down slightly from 4.1% last month.

Jay Papasan presents The Top Story this month, with the top reasons sellers decide to move.

1) Desire to “move up” to a bigger house or different neighborhood.

2) Need to relocate for a job.

3) Change in Family Status such as having a baby or retirement.

To learn how to make the most of the sale of a house, Bryon Ellington discusses News You Can Use.

He states that you should know how a full service agent can help you versus a limited service brokerage.

A full service agent can help you:

A) Price your home according to the market.

B) Market your home to other agents who are working with qualified buyers.

C) Post your home on other internet sites besides the MLS.

D) Full service agents, in general, have proven results.

For professional, full service Baltimore home sale assistance, contact me. I am happy to help!

This Month in Real Estate November 2011

This Month in Real Estate for November 2011 has been released!

The numbers from October, presented by Jay Papasan, showed the home sales at an annual pace of 4.9 million, down slightly from last month, but much better than September’s numbers. Median home price was $165,000, which is another drop from This Month in Real Estate October 2011. Interest rates rose very slightly to an average of 4.1% for a 30 year fixed mortgage.

The Top Story asks the question, “What are first time homebuyers looking for?” According to KW research, much of it is to stay in the same area as they were renting. 3/4 of first time homebuyers bought a single family home, and most purchased a three bedroom, two bath home.

Of course, this data is nationwide, and the Baltimore real estate market is different than any other. Many areas of the country do not have the dense, highly populated areas with rowhomes such as Downtown Baltimore in Federal Hill, Fells Point, Canton, and Locust Point. Even Baltimore County has many townhouse neighborhoods, such as Mays Chapel in Timonium, Rodgers Forge, and areas of White Marsh and Perry Hall.

In News You Can Use, Bryon Ellington discusses three things you should know about buying versus renting.

1) Equity. You can build wealth through equity. He aligns it with a long term savings account. Every month that you pay your mortgage, a portion of the mortgage goes into that “account” (your principle).

2) Appreciation. If the market where you buy appreciates, then that equity becomes even larger.

3) Make it your own. You can renovate, paint, do whatever you’d like to it!

He also points out that when you pay rent, you are still paying a mortgage. It is just someone else’s mortgage, and you don’t get the benefits of ownership.

For more information about buying a home in Baltimore, please contact me. I would be happy to help!

FHA Condo Rules Make Selling Many Condos Difficult

Recently, there were changes made to the FHA condo regulations on which projects can be FHA insured or not.

According to a Washington Post rundown of the changes, a major one is the “spot approval” that used to be acceptable to be eligible for an FHA loan. Another article goes more in depth on the issues this is causing for condo home sellers.

The agency eliminated spot approval earlier this year. Now, any condo buyer with an FHA loan must stick to an FHA-approved building. A lender, developer/builder, homeowners association or management company can submit a package to the FHA seeking approval. The change was part of a broader initiative to tighten FHA condo policy. Some elements of that initiative have been temporarily loosened through Dec. 31 to try to stabilize the condo market.Why? Condos are widely considered the market’s shakiest segment because they are popular with speculators and financially vulnerable entry-level buyers. A lot of foreclosure-related losses have come from condos, which is why industry policies have forced lenders to look more closely at the makeup of entire complexes before extending loans.

Without that FHA approval, it ties the hands of many buyers, as most would then need more money for a downpayment, which they may not have.

I did a quick spot check on Timonium condos on the HUD site where you can review FHA condo approval statuses. I was sad to see how many had expired, leaving any sellers in those buildings at a disadvantage! Of the 23 Timonium condo communities that came up when I searched 21093, 16 of them have expired. Here is a pdf of the Timonium FHA condo statuses as of today.

I have written much about the FHA Condo Recertifications, because we have so many Timonium condos that are now affected by these changes.

This is not good news, and I hope that the associations are working toward their re-certifications, though I understand across the US that many have tried and been denied over technicalities or other issues, and that the penalty for a director providing incorrect information (even if in error) faces $1 million in fines & up to 30 years in jail, so many are not willing to take on the risk.

Hopefully there will be another resolution on this matter, so affected condo owners aren’t hurt more by the inability to sell to FHA homebuyers.

Strange Things That May Hurt Your Baltimore House Value

There are some things about your Baltimore home that you may have gotten used to, or don’t bother you, but could affect your house’s value.

Recently there was an article on MSNMoney where they tackled a few of these things.

Your house is different from the majority of the houses around you. If yours is the largest in the neighborhood, your value would be affected by those smaller homes around you. Buyers who are looking for that bigger home would tend to look elsewhere. Add onto that, appraisers would typically assign your home less $$ per square foot than other homes like yours in different neighborhoods.

This also comes into play with improvements. If you have put a lot of money into kitchens and bathrooms, but the neighboring houses have not, then you most likely will not get the money you put into it back when you sell.

You are missing a family room or bedroom. This goes along with “your house is different,” because if you only have three bedrooms but the others around you have four, this will affect who may look at or buy your house. Buyers have come to expect certain things from certain neighborhoods, and if your house doesn’t have what they expect, it could hurt your value in the long run.

Your house is a mish-mash of styles and updates. Your refrigerator broke so you decided to get a stainless one because it would look better over the long run. The problem is if you still have a white dishwasher, a black & white stove, and black microwave, it doesn’t show well. It could very well look like your appliances are starting to fail, and that could be the assumption a buyer makes.

Your home is showing its’ age. Are those floors really getting beaten up? Is your 50 year old front porch looking it? Those could affect value both in resale and in appraisal.

Neighbors. Some of that goes with improvements — if your neighbor tends to decorate the outside of his or her house in loud colors and designs, or leaves trash or junk around, it definitely can bring your value down.

Your Home Owner’s Association (HOA). Many HOAs make their communities better places. They make sure the outsides of houses look good, yards not a mess, and ensure that the neighbor issue from above don’t happen. Some, though, can be very strict, and that can hurt values. Why? If there are lawsuits going on, it could look like trouble. Add onto that, in the long run, it is usually the association’s dues that pay for the lawsuits….so some could worry that their dues would rise.

Your tax assessment is wrong. If square footage, number of bedrooms, or other issues are there, it could affect an appraisal on the property.

So be aware of these items that could affect your house’s value. Remember that buyers are often looking for a home, which includes the neighborhood, neighbors, and surrounding areas. Contact me for ideas on your Baltimore house value, and what you may be able to do to better yours!

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