Baltimore Zillow Zestimates Still Off

Baltimore Zillow Zestimates are still often off from true value, despite the change in algorithms last year.

“Desktop Valuations” are a quick way to look at the potential value of a home, but they do not take many factors into consideration, and some of the things they DO use to determine a value should not be used!

I answer questions on the Zillow site, and so many times the questions come from a place of, “Why, in my townhouse community where the houses are very much the same, is my neighbor’s worth $XXX and mine is worth $45,000 less despite mine being an end unit with an additional bump-out?”

That is a very good question, and one that doesn’t have a good answer. The algorithm takes into account the taxes you pay and when the house last changed hands. If a house hasn’t changed hands in some time, the taxes generally are lower, and that would bring the “value” of that house down. That just doesn’t seem right, does it?

Next to this is an example of the “range” of value for one house I found. If a professional real estate agent walked into your house and told you they thought it might sell for somewhere between $391,000 and $740,000, would you feel comfortable that the agent knew your market?

How about the houses “for sale nearby.” Do these look like they belong together as a picture of a particular Towson community to you? They seem to be a random selection of homes that happen to be in the same zip code.

 

 

The biggest issue is the quality of the Baltimore Zestimates.

As you can see here, Baltimore Zestimates are within 5% of an actual sales price only 42.6% of the time. They are within 10% of an actual sales price 66.4% of the time. They are within 20% of a sales price 83% of the time. These are with a median error of 6.1%.

Think about what that means.

On a $400,000 sales price, the Zestimate may show $380,000 or $420,000 — but again, that is only 42.6% of the time.

To get above 50%, you have to go within 10% of the actual sales price. So on that same $400,000 house, a Zestimate 66.4% of the time will be from $360,000-440,000.

To get to the closer 83%, you have to bring that out to 20% of a sales price. That could drop the Zestimate down to $320,000. Would you as a Baltimore seller be happy with that if your house were truly worth $400,000? How about a homebuyer? Would a Baltimore homebuyer be happy to pay $480,000 for a house that is really worth $400,000? Probably not. And the buyer’s mortgage company most likely wouldn’t let it happen, because an actual appraisal would most likely be close to the true market value of $400,000.

And don’t forget — that is with a median error of 6.1%, or approximately $24,000 give-or-take, on that $400,000 house.

Real estate everywhere is LOCAL. Hyper-local even.

Baltimore real estate values can be different street-by-street!

For a true understanding of your house’s value, don’t count on automated valuation websites. Contact me for a true idea of you Baltimore house value. I’d love to help!

 

Would you like to know more and see additional Zillow issues in the Baltimore area? See my past posts on incorrect Towson Zillow Zestimates for details.

Upbeat Housing Outlook 2012

USA Today reports that economists, banking and building executives are thinking optimistically of the real estate market in the coming year, and that the housing industry may be finally close to hitting the bottom.

The article does clarify, though, that prices are still expected to drop in many areas, but there should be more home sales, and more houses being built, which are usually indicators of the beginnings of a recovery.

The reason prices are expected to fall in many areas would be due to the large number of foreclosures still out there. Many were delayed because of the “robo-signing” scandal last year, but will be moved forward this year.

The economy is an important piece in the housing recovery. Last month, the unemployment rate dropped to 8.5%, and 200,000 jobs were added. These are good signs for the economy, and housing usually follows economic recovery.

There are many factors that affect the housing recovery, and Baltimore real estate is extremely local. Some neighborhoods, like those I’ve noted in Towson home sales in December and Timonium December home sales, have seen some increases or at least stabilization.

Real estate is extremely local — as much as street-by-street or neighborhood-by-neighborhood.

To find out where your Baltimore house currently stands in the housing recovery, please contact me. I would be happy to help!

21093 Home Sale Statistics December 2011

December 2011 showed another increase in sale for the Lutherville Timonium area.

$14,986,850 in homes sold in 21093, up 19.56% from $12,534,600 in December 2010. Average sales price was up as well, to $405,000 from $391,706 last year.

37 Timonium homes changed hands last month, versus 32 the December prior. Homes stayed on the market a bit longer, though, averaging 114 days to sell versus 81 days a year ago.

One home sold over $1M, so that could be a reason for the % to jump for many of the categories, but the good news is that the Timonium real estate market really seems to be stable, looking back at November Timonium home sales and much of last year.

14 homes came on the market last month, and there were a total of 137 homes for sale in 21093. 34 homes went under contract, which should hopefully show a strong January and February for Timonium home sales!

Here is a link to the detailed December 2011 Timonium home sale report.

I’ve mentioned many times how Timonium and Lutherville homes are vastly different — neighborhood by neighborhood and often street by street.

For an idea of your Lutherville house value, contact me! I would be thrilled to help!

21093 Home Sale Statistics November 2011

November 2011 showed a large jump in Timonium home sales over the same period last year.

There were 47% more sales — up  42.94% to $12,293,200 in homes changing hands, while last November had $8,600,150 in home change hands. The average sales price was only down very slightly (3.51%), to $307,330.

13 more homes changed hands than last year, with 40 settlements that happened.

An interesting statistic is that 23 detached homes sold, versus 9 last November. There are many small cape cod and rancher style homes that, in this market, are selling under $300,000, which could explain the large jump in sales, yet the slight drop in price.

Homes in Timonium are staying on the market a bit longer as well — 100 days on average for those that sold last month, versus 81 days last year. That’s almost an additional three weeks to sell your home in this real estate market! One of those 40 homes that sold, though, was on the market for almost two years, so that definitely skews the numbers. 13 of them actually sold in less than a month (5 within a week or 2 on the market!) So, it appears that if the houses are in good condition and priced well, there are many people who want to buy a home in Timonium!

47 homes went under contract, and 33 were newly listed for sale. That is a good sign! It means that the housing inventory in Timonium is dropping, with 180 available homes for Timonium homebuyers, and that homes are selling in the area!

Here is a link to the detailed November 2011 Timonium Home Sale report.

As I have mentioned many times before, even within the 21093 zip code, there are many neighborhoods, each with their own characteristics and resale values. Sometimes these houses are just one street over from each other, but could have vastly different averages.

For professional and knowledgeable Timonium real estate help, contact me. I am ready to assist!

Timonium Home Sale Statistics October 2011

Home sales in Timonium were up slightly over the same period last year with $10,144,017 in homes changing hands last month.

The average sales price was down 8.63% to $349,794, mostly due to the detached homes price which was down 18.39% from $428,953 last October to $350,060 this year. This tells me that most likely more of the smaller Lutherville cape cod, rancher, and split levels sold, rather than some of the larger single family homes.

56 new homes came on the market, while 37 homes went under contract, which a 44% increase over October of last year. A total of 214 homes are for sale in Timonium.

Here is a link to the detailed October 2011 Timonium home sale report.

As you can see from the numbers this month, more of the smaller detached homes sold, while the attached/townhouse numbers can be skewed because one of the nine sales was in the $600-799,000 range.

Keep in mind that each Timonium neighborhood is different. Contact me for your Timonium house value!

This Month in Real Estate November 2011

This Month in Real Estate for November 2011 has been released!

The numbers from October, presented by Jay Papasan, showed the home sales at an annual pace of 4.9 million, down slightly from last month, but much better than September’s numbers. Median home price was $165,000, which is another drop from This Month in Real Estate October 2011. Interest rates rose very slightly to an average of 4.1% for a 30 year fixed mortgage.

The Top Story asks the question, “What are first time homebuyers looking for?” According to KW research, much of it is to stay in the same area as they were renting. 3/4 of first time homebuyers bought a single family home, and most purchased a three bedroom, two bath home.

Of course, this data is nationwide, and the Baltimore real estate market is different than any other. Many areas of the country do not have the dense, highly populated areas with rowhomes such as Downtown Baltimore in Federal Hill, Fells Point, Canton, and Locust Point. Even Baltimore County has many townhouse neighborhoods, such as Mays Chapel in Timonium, Rodgers Forge, and areas of White Marsh and Perry Hall.

In News You Can Use, Bryon Ellington discusses three things you should know about buying versus renting.

1) Equity. You can build wealth through equity. He aligns it with a long term savings account. Every month that you pay your mortgage, a portion of the mortgage goes into that “account” (your principle).

2) Appreciation. If the market where you buy appreciates, then that equity becomes even larger.

3) Make it your own. You can renovate, paint, do whatever you’d like to it!

He also points out that when you pay rent, you are still paying a mortgage. It is just someone else’s mortgage, and you don’t get the benefits of ownership.

For more information about buying a home in Baltimore, please contact me. I would be happy to help!

FHA Condo Rules Make Selling Many Condos Difficult

Recently, there were changes made to the FHA condo regulations on which projects can be FHA insured or not.

According to a Washington Post rundown of the changes, a major one is the “spot approval” that used to be acceptable to be eligible for an FHA loan. Another article goes more in depth on the issues this is causing for condo home sellers.

The agency eliminated spot approval earlier this year. Now, any condo buyer with an FHA loan must stick to an FHA-approved building. A lender, developer/builder, homeowners association or management company can submit a package to the FHA seeking approval. The change was part of a broader initiative to tighten FHA condo policy. Some elements of that initiative have been temporarily loosened through Dec. 31 to try to stabilize the condo market.Why? Condos are widely considered the market’s shakiest segment because they are popular with speculators and financially vulnerable entry-level buyers. A lot of foreclosure-related losses have come from condos, which is why industry policies have forced lenders to look more closely at the makeup of entire complexes before extending loans.

Without that FHA approval, it ties the hands of many buyers, as most would then need more money for a downpayment, which they may not have.

I did a quick spot check on Timonium condos on the HUD site where you can review FHA condo approval statuses. I was sad to see how many had expired, leaving any sellers in those buildings at a disadvantage! Of the 23 Timonium condo communities that came up when I searched 21093, 16 of them have expired. Here is a pdf of the Timonium FHA condo statuses as of today.

I have written much about the FHA Condo Recertifications, because we have so many Timonium condos that are now affected by these changes.

This is not good news, and I hope that the associations are working toward their re-certifications, though I understand across the US that many have tried and been denied over technicalities or other issues, and that the penalty for a director providing incorrect information (even if in error) faces $1 million in fines & up to 30 years in jail, so many are not willing to take on the risk.

Hopefully there will be another resolution on this matter, so affected condo owners aren’t hurt more by the inability to sell to FHA homebuyers.

21093 Home Sale Statistics September 2011

Home sales in 21093 were stable in September, with a small increase of 8.7% over the same month last year.

Average home sale price in Timonium was up 5.5% as well, up to $336,156 versus a low of $318,630 last September.

One more home sold this September, with 34 changing hands.

An interesting statistic (but not a good one), is that townhouse sales prices were down 18.22% to $250,692 while last year’s average was $306,542. It appears that there were a number of condos that sold, and they are used in the statistics. One sold for under $150,000, two for $150-200,000, and 4 in the $200-299,000 price range, which could explain the large drop in prices throughout the 21093 zip code.

At the same time, we had a price jump for detached homes, with average sales price rising to $389,062 over last September’s average of $325,538. Again, though, this number is skewed because there were FOUR sales in the $600-800,000 price range, which bring that average up tremendously and artificially.

Here is a link to the detailed September 2011 Timonium home sale report.

What this really reminds me is that real estate is extremely local. Timonium real estate is no different. There are $800,000 neighborhoods that are adjacent to $275,000 ones. Each neighborhood, even each street, can hold different values. Contact me for your Lutherville neighborhood house value!

Timonium Home Sales Statistics August 2011

Timonium home sales were up in a HUGE way in August 2011 — across the board, great numbers were showing over the same month last year.

Total sold volume was up 134.17% from $8,953,500 in August 2010 to $20,966,275 last month. Average sold price was up a smidgen 4.54% to $374,398.

Total number of homes sold was up 124.00% to 56 over last year’s 25 homes sold in August.

The one number that was down is a good one — the number of days on average that it took to sell a home dropped 46.55% — on average, it has been taking 62 days to sell instead of the 116 days it was taking in the same period last year.

38 homes went under contract, and 59 new ones were listed. There were a total of 226 homes on the market in 21093.

This appears to be a continuation of the rise we saw in both June and July Timonium home sales.

Compared to much of the Baltimore real estate market, Timonium is really doing well.

See the full August 2011 Timonium home sale report here.

As I have talked about many times before, each neighborhood, even within zip codes, can have different markets and statistics. Contact me for more details on your Timonium neighborhood house sales.

A New Low for Incorrect Zillow Zestimates

Last night, Zillow posted a tweet, inviting you to look at this glorious mansion on the market for $35,000,000. Please note, that is $35 MILLION.

The amusing part to me, is when I clicked on it, directly under the asking price is the Zillow Zestimate: $396,500. Yes, you read that right, Three hundred ninety-six THOUSAND, five hundred dollars.

Now, I realize Zillow’s algorithms have what they claim to be somewhere between a 7-11% margin of error, but this one is off by 88.27%. OFF BY ALMOST 90% OF VALUE. Hm. Think something might not be right?

Yet Automated Valuation Systems are the way banks are doing quick appraisal reviews, and no wonder they may be coming in low.

I’ve discussed the Zillow Zestimates in the past, beginning with Zillow Zestimates for Towson Real Estate May Be Misleading. I have come across a large number that were not close to a selling price of a home.

Then, I had communications with some Zillow executives, where some light was shed on why it is possible they are off in our area, which I discussed in Misleading Towson Zillow Zestimates Explained Further.

Zestimates started to complicate things further as the market began to drop, because banks began to reduce Home Equity Lines of Credit, and were using Desktop Valuations to do so. When one of my clients called his bank, his loan officer pulled up Zillow & told him that’s why it had been dropped. (See Incorrect Towson Zillow Zestimate Strike Again.)

Earlier this year, Zillow updated their Algorithms to try to correct some of the problems. For the Baltimore metropolitan area, according to the site’s “Zestimate Accuracy,” Zestimates are within 20% of an actual sales price only 78.3% of the time (with a 7.9% margin of error).

For a $200,000 house, being 20% below would bring the price down to $160,000. Above, that price (which would make a seller happy, but not a buyer or appraiser), would be $240,000. That’s a tremendous difference!

Real estate is very local. Even street-by-street or neighborhood-by-neighborhood within a zip code can have majorly different values.

If you would like an accurate Towson home value estimate, please contact me. I can help you anywhere in the Baltimore real estate market area, or if you are in a different state, I can refer you to an agent anywhere across the country.

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