Baltimore Zillow Zestimates Still Off

Baltimore Zillow Zestimates are still often off from true value, despite the change in algorithms last year.

“Desktop Valuations” are a quick way to look at the potential value of a home, but they do not take many factors into consideration, and some of the things they DO use to determine a value should not be used!

I answer questions on the Zillow site, and so many times the questions come from a place of, “Why, in my townhouse community where the houses are very much the same, is my neighbor’s worth $XXX and mine is worth $45,000 less despite mine being an end unit with an additional bump-out?”

That is a very good question, and one that doesn’t have a good answer. The algorithm takes into account the taxes you pay and when the house last changed hands. If a house hasn’t changed hands in some time, the taxes generally are lower, and that would bring the “value” of that house down. That just doesn’t seem right, does it?

Next to this is an example of the “range” of value for one house I found. If a professional real estate agent walked into your house and told you they thought it might sell for somewhere between $391,000 and $740,000, would you feel comfortable that the agent knew your market?

How about the houses “for sale nearby.” Do these look like they belong together as a picture of a particular Towson community to you? They seem to be a random selection of homes that happen to be in the same zip code.

 

 

The biggest issue is the quality of the Baltimore Zestimates.

As you can see here, Baltimore Zestimates are within 5% of an actual sales price only 42.6% of the time. They are within 10% of an actual sales price 66.4% of the time. They are within 20% of a sales price 83% of the time. These are with a median error of 6.1%.

Think about what that means.

On a $400,000 sales price, the Zestimate may show $380,000 or $420,000 — but again, that is only 42.6% of the time.

To get above 50%, you have to go within 10% of the actual sales price. So on that same $400,000 house, a Zestimate 66.4% of the time will be from $360,000-440,000.

To get to the closer 83%, you have to bring that out to 20% of a sales price. That could drop the Zestimate down to $320,000. Would you as a Baltimore seller be happy with that if your house were truly worth $400,000? How about a homebuyer? Would a Baltimore homebuyer be happy to pay $480,000 for a house that is really worth $400,000? Probably not. And the buyer’s mortgage company most likely wouldn’t let it happen, because an actual appraisal would most likely be close to the true market value of $400,000.

And don’t forget — that is with a median error of 6.1%, or approximately $24,000 give-or-take, on that $400,000 house.

Real estate everywhere is LOCAL. Hyper-local even.

Baltimore real estate values can be different street-by-street!

For a true understanding of your house’s value, don’t count on automated valuation websites. Contact me for a true idea of you Baltimore house value. I’d love to help!

 

Would you like to know more and see additional Zillow issues in the Baltimore area? See my past posts on incorrect Towson Zillow Zestimates for details.

Upbeat Housing Outlook 2012

USA Today reports that economists, banking and building executives are thinking optimistically of the real estate market in the coming year, and that the housing industry may be finally close to hitting the bottom.

The article does clarify, though, that prices are still expected to drop in many areas, but there should be more home sales, and more houses being built, which are usually indicators of the beginnings of a recovery.

The reason prices are expected to fall in many areas would be due to the large number of foreclosures still out there. Many were delayed because of the “robo-signing” scandal last year, but will be moved forward this year.

The economy is an important piece in the housing recovery. Last month, the unemployment rate dropped to 8.5%, and 200,000 jobs were added. These are good signs for the economy, and housing usually follows economic recovery.

There are many factors that affect the housing recovery, and Baltimore real estate is extremely local. Some neighborhoods, like those I’ve noted in Towson home sales in December and Timonium December home sales, have seen some increases or at least stabilization.

Real estate is extremely local — as much as street-by-street or neighborhood-by-neighborhood.

To find out where your Baltimore house currently stands in the housing recovery, please contact me. I would be happy to help!

Towson 21286 Home Sale Statistics December 2011

Towson has held value over the volatile last few years.

Average sales price was actually UP in 21286 to $330,255 from $246,288 last December. Sales were down slightly, with only 11 homes changing hands versus 15 last year, but that makes the average price even more significant.

Three townhouses in Towson sold with an average price of $181,667, but again, just one foreclosure or short sale could bring the average down tremendously when so few homes sold.

Eight detached homes sold, with an average sales price of $385,975. This tells me that the homes sold were most likely in Towson neighborhoods like Hampton, Wiltondale, Temfield, or Hunt Crest Estates.

Here is the detailed 21286 home sales report for December 2011.

Towson 21204 has also held its’ value, and had a good December, as I wrote in my Towson Patch post.

For more information on your Towson house value, contact me. I’d be happy to help!

This Month in Real Estate January 2012

This Month in Real Estate January 2012 has been released!

Home sales activity was down to 4.4 million homes last month, a drop from the pace set from December 2011 This Month in Real Estate of 4.97 million. It makes me wonder about the number of sales that may have been canceled last month. It is up, though, according to the numbers, 12% over the same period of 2010. The median home sale price was $164,000. The average interest rate for December was 3.91%, down from November.

The Top News, presented by Jay Papasan, is about home buyers, and the surprising things they look for in a home.

Most homebuyers start their searches online, and it takes, on average, about three months to find a home. Weather is less of a factor than in past years, because so many buyers view the house and the areas online to see if they are places they would want to consider.

In News You Can Use with Bryon Ellington, he discusses why listing your house NOW instead of waiting for the Spring may be a good decision.

1) As noted earlier, it takes, on average, about three months for a buyer to find their house. That will be Spring — so you are listing for those who are looking to settle in that time frame!

2) You have less competition. Many people wait to list in the Spring. If you list now, there are fewer houses for buyers to choose from — which may make yours more attractive!

3) Lenders, appraisers, movers, home inspectors, contractors, and other vendors also see a decline in business during these months. Therefore your sale/home/buyer gets more attention.

If you’d like more information on whether now is a good time to sell your house in Towson, contact me. I would be happy to help!

FHA Loan Limits Remain High

The loan limits for FHA are at a decent amount, thanks to Congress voting to reinstate the loan limits that had been in place before, but had lapsed.

Currently, the limit for an FHA mortgage in Baltimore County is $560,000. That was due to drop down to $494,500, which could have really hurt Towson house values, since there are many in the $500-$550,000 price range!

The reason this could hurt Towson house values, is that a buyer would have to get more of a downpayment (it could be 20% or more!), and get what is called a JUMBO loan, which generally has higher interest rates than standard Conventional or FHA loans. The loan limit for standard Conventional loans is $417,000, a large drop from the FHA limit.

There are many buyers who do not have 20% to put down on a house, in order to qualify for a Jumbo loan, which would leave them most likely unable to buy a house above either the FHA loan limit, or the lower Conventional loan limit.

I wrote about the potential issue of a Baltimore FHA loan limit drop in June, and used this possible example:

Today, you meet with a REALTOR(R), and after meeting, you determine that your house is worth around $525,000. A qualified buyer using FHA secured financing can currently buy your home.

As of October 1, 2011, that same buyer would not be able to buy your house. What do you think would happen? Might their best & highest offer be $494,500, then, since they need FHA secured financing?

These extended limits are not forever, so make sure you know what the limits are when you list your home.

For professional, knowledgeable Towson real estate needs, contact me!

Why Did My House Appraisal Come in Low?

Why did my house appraisal come in lower than contract price?

Even with comparable sales to your contract price on your house on record, if there are other homes in the area that have sold for less since then, that says to an appraiser that values are dropping in the neighborhood.

An appraiser’s responsibility is to the buyer’s bank, to show to the bank that if they had to foreclose, the value would be there to resell it.

If he or she interprets the market to be declining, it is his or her obligation to report it that way.

If there is a long time between the contract date and the settlement date, it can make this issue more prevalent, so be aware of settlement dates more than 60 days out. Appraisers right now are looking at data generally less than four months old. If your house goes under contract, and settlement isn’t due to happen for 90-120 days, then you really don’t know what the market will tell the appraiser, and you run even more of a risk.

What can you do to prepare for an appraisal?

If you have done a lot of work to your house that is outstanding and sets your home apart from others, make sure to have those receipts, so your agent can make copies of them to give to the appraiser.

Make sure your house looks good when the appraiser is due to come through. Appraisers do understand that you are moving, so some boxes are expected, but a nice, clean house helps!

Be sure to keep up on what is happening in your neighborhood even after you go under contract. Those list prices and sales WILL affect your value!

Having a professional real estate agent to guide you through this tough market is very important. Contact me for Towson real estate needs!

A New Low for Incorrect Zillow Zestimates

Last night, Zillow posted a tweet, inviting you to look at this glorious mansion on the market for $35,000,000. Please note, that is $35 MILLION.

The amusing part to me, is when I clicked on it, directly under the asking price is the Zillow Zestimate: $396,500. Yes, you read that right, Three hundred ninety-six THOUSAND, five hundred dollars.

Now, I realize Zillow’s algorithms have what they claim to be somewhere between a 7-11% margin of error, but this one is off by 88.27%. OFF BY ALMOST 90% OF VALUE. Hm. Think something might not be right?

Yet Automated Valuation Systems are the way banks are doing quick appraisal reviews, and no wonder they may be coming in low.

I’ve discussed the Zillow Zestimates in the past, beginning with Zillow Zestimates for Towson Real Estate May Be Misleading. I have come across a large number that were not close to a selling price of a home.

Then, I had communications with some Zillow executives, where some light was shed on why it is possible they are off in our area, which I discussed in Misleading Towson Zillow Zestimates Explained Further.

Zestimates started to complicate things further as the market began to drop, because banks began to reduce Home Equity Lines of Credit, and were using Desktop Valuations to do so. When one of my clients called his bank, his loan officer pulled up Zillow & told him that’s why it had been dropped. (See Incorrect Towson Zillow Zestimate Strike Again.)

Earlier this year, Zillow updated their Algorithms to try to correct some of the problems. For the Baltimore metropolitan area, according to the site’s “Zestimate Accuracy,” Zestimates are within 20% of an actual sales price only 78.3% of the time (with a 7.9% margin of error).

For a $200,000 house, being 20% below would bring the price down to $160,000. Above, that price (which would make a seller happy, but not a buyer or appraiser), would be $240,000. That’s a tremendous difference!

Real estate is very local. Even street-by-street or neighborhood-by-neighborhood within a zip code can have majorly different values.

If you would like an accurate Towson home value estimate, please contact me. I can help you anywhere in the Baltimore real estate market area, or if you are in a different state, I can refer you to an agent anywhere across the country.

Bloomberg Reports Home Prices Likely to Rise

In a post today from CNN’s “State of the Union” interview with HUD Secretary Shaun Donovan, Bloomberg reports that house prices are unlikely to decline further, and they expect to see a rise in prices in the third quarter.

This is due to the reduction in number of people defaulting on their mortgages, down 40% over the same time last year.

Also, in general, across the U.S., home sales have risen over the past six months. See more details in the Bloomberg article and the CNN interview with Secretary Donovan.

Secretary Donovan said according to the CNN interview,

“Foreclosures are coming down. They’re down about 40 percent since last year,” said Donovan, who joined President Barack Obama’s Cabinet in 2009. “So, we are making progress, but rightly, the American people recognize we’re not where we need to be. We still have a ways to go.”

According to the Bloomberg article,

“Contracts to buy previously owned U.S. homes rose 8.2 percent in May, following a revised 11 percent drop in the previous month, the National Association of Realtors said on June 29. A separate report by the Chicago-based group on June 21 showed sales of existing houses, which make up about 96 percent of the market, declined in May to a six-month low.”

I will be curious to see the Towson real estate market update from June, because here in our area, we did not see increases, like the NAR’s statistics from May.

Contact me for details on your Towson house value, because each neighborhood is retaining or losing value separately.

Towson High Schools Rank in Newsweek Top 500

Towson High Schools were ranked in Newsweek’s Top 500 list on June 19, 2011, and Towson residents should be proud.

Seven Baltimore County Schools made the list (18 total for the State of Maryland). According to the Newsweek article:

…each school’s score is comprised of six components: graduation rate (25%), college matriculation rate (25%), AP tests taken per graduate (25%), average SAT/ACT scores (10%), average AP/IB/AICE scores (10%), and AP courses offered (5%).

Carver Center led the Towson pack at #232. Towson High School ranked #413, and Loch Raven High ranked #443.

Other Baltimore County High Schools that made the list were Essex Technical (#131!), Hereford High School in Sparks was #219, Pikesville High #388, and Dulaney High School in Timonium #446.

It goes to show why many feel living in Towson is great!

Baltimore FHA Loan Limits May Drop in Fall

FHA loan limits across the United States had been set at a higher level to help the housing market from further decline, and in September 2010 that was extended through September 2011.

The current loan limit in Baltimore County, Baltimore City, and Harford County is $560,000 for an FHA loan. This means that you can get an FHA loan of up to $560,000 for a house in Baltimore.

If the loan limit extension is allowed to expire, then that limit will be dropped to $494,500 (a drop of $65,500!)

When I think of the Timonium housing market, or Towson house values, many homes are in the $450-550,000 range, and if this extension were to expire, those from $500-560,000 no longer would qualify for FHA financing, which could hurt homesellers in a big way.

Many Towson homebuyers do not have a large percentage to put down on a home, and would need the low 3.5% downpayment program that FHA has to offer. If the loan limits drop, this could bring house values down. How?

Here’s a possible example:

Today, you meet with a REALTOR(R), and after meeting, you determine that your house is worth around $525,000. A qualified buyer using FHA secured financing can currently buy your home.

As of October 1, 2011, that same buyer would not be able to buy your house. What do you think would happen? Might their best & highest offer be $494,500, then, since they need FHA secured financing?

So what can you do? Read more details and information about the bill from the National Association of REALTORS(R). Find out who your local representatives and senators are here, and make your voice heard. Tell them that “H.R. 1754 has been introduced in the House by Reps. Miller (R-CA) and Sherman (D-CA) to make the current limits permanent. No similar bill has yet been introduced in the Senate” and that this bill needs to pass!

Next Page »