Baltimore Zillow Zestimates Still Off

Baltimore Zillow Zestimates are still often off from true value, despite the change in algorithms last year.

“Desktop Valuations” are a quick way to look at the potential value of a home, but they do not take many factors into consideration, and some of the things they DO use to determine a value should not be used!

I answer questions on the Zillow site, and so many times the questions come from a place of, “Why, in my townhouse community where the houses are very much the same, is my neighbor’s worth $XXX and mine is worth $45,000 less despite mine being an end unit with an additional bump-out?”

That is a very good question, and one that doesn’t have a good answer. The algorithm takes into account the taxes you pay and when the house last changed hands. If a house hasn’t changed hands in some time, the taxes generally are lower, and that would bring the “value” of that house down. That just doesn’t seem right, does it?

Next to this is an example of the “range” of value for one house I found. If a professional real estate agent walked into your house and told you they thought it might sell for somewhere between $391,000 and $740,000, would you feel comfortable that the agent knew your market?

How about the houses “for sale nearby.” Do these look like they belong together as a picture of a particular Towson community to you? They seem to be a random selection of homes that happen to be in the same zip code.

 

 

The biggest issue is the quality of the Baltimore Zestimates.

As you can see here, Baltimore Zestimates are within 5% of an actual sales price only 42.6% of the time. They are within 10% of an actual sales price 66.4% of the time. They are within 20% of a sales price 83% of the time. These are with a median error of 6.1%.

Think about what that means.

On a $400,000 sales price, the Zestimate may show $380,000 or $420,000 — but again, that is only 42.6% of the time.

To get above 50%, you have to go within 10% of the actual sales price. So on that same $400,000 house, a Zestimate 66.4% of the time will be from $360,000-440,000.

To get to the closer 83%, you have to bring that out to 20% of a sales price. That could drop the Zestimate down to $320,000. Would you as a Baltimore seller be happy with that if your house were truly worth $400,000? How about a homebuyer? Would a Baltimore homebuyer be happy to pay $480,000 for a house that is really worth $400,000? Probably not. And the buyer’s mortgage company most likely wouldn’t let it happen, because an actual appraisal would most likely be close to the true market value of $400,000.

And don’t forget — that is with a median error of 6.1%, or approximately $24,000 give-or-take, on that $400,000 house.

Real estate everywhere is LOCAL. Hyper-local even.

Baltimore real estate values can be different street-by-street!

For a true understanding of your house’s value, don’t count on automated valuation websites. Contact me for a true idea of you Baltimore house value. I’d love to help!

 

Would you like to know more and see additional Zillow issues in the Baltimore area? See my past posts on incorrect Towson Zillow Zestimates for details.

Towson Swim Club May Not Open

Towson Swim Club says it needs 135 more members or plans for the swim club will have to be scrapped.

The new members need to sign up by Feburary 29, 2012 or the project will be terminated.

According to the Towson Patch article about the issue, the Club has $318,000 in funds raised by members joining, but in applying for a new loan, plus paying for an engineering contract, they need to secure more members to make it happen.

The cost, according to the paperwork from their website, is $1,975 per household plus $250 application fee and $275 initiation fee. The charter membership may be transferable when you sell your Towson home.

Summer fees range from $495 individual memberships to $685 family memberships, with lower Senior memberships also available.

The Towson Swim Club was originally slated to open Memorial Day 2011. It was then postponed to Memorial Day 2012 when a private investor backed out. Now the opening has been pushed back another year to 2013, and only if 135 new members join by February 29, 2012.

I do truly hope that West Towson homeowners can come together and get this pool financed. It would be a wonderful additional bonus to living in West Towson.

FHA Condo Rules Make Selling Many Condos Difficult

Recently, there were changes made to the FHA condo regulations on which projects can be FHA insured or not.

According to a Washington Post rundown of the changes, a major one is the “spot approval” that used to be acceptable to be eligible for an FHA loan. Another article goes more in depth on the issues this is causing for condo home sellers.

The agency eliminated spot approval earlier this year. Now, any condo buyer with an FHA loan must stick to an FHA-approved building. A lender, developer/builder, homeowners association or management company can submit a package to the FHA seeking approval. The change was part of a broader initiative to tighten FHA condo policy. Some elements of that initiative have been temporarily loosened through Dec. 31 to try to stabilize the condo market.Why? Condos are widely considered the market’s shakiest segment because they are popular with speculators and financially vulnerable entry-level buyers. A lot of foreclosure-related losses have come from condos, which is why industry policies have forced lenders to look more closely at the makeup of entire complexes before extending loans.

Without that FHA approval, it ties the hands of many buyers, as most would then need more money for a downpayment, which they may not have.

I did a quick spot check on Timonium condos on the HUD site where you can review FHA condo approval statuses. I was sad to see how many had expired, leaving any sellers in those buildings at a disadvantage! Of the 23 Timonium condo communities that came up when I searched 21093, 16 of them have expired. Here is a pdf of the Timonium FHA condo statuses as of today.

I have written much about the FHA Condo Recertifications, because we have so many Timonium condos that are now affected by these changes.

This is not good news, and I hope that the associations are working toward their re-certifications, though I understand across the US that many have tried and been denied over technicalities or other issues, and that the penalty for a director providing incorrect information (even if in error) faces $1 million in fines & up to 30 years in jail, so many are not willing to take on the risk.

Hopefully there will be another resolution on this matter, so affected condo owners aren’t hurt more by the inability to sell to FHA homebuyers.

A New Low for Incorrect Zillow Zestimates

Last night, Zillow posted a tweet, inviting you to look at this glorious mansion on the market for $35,000,000. Please note, that is $35 MILLION.

The amusing part to me, is when I clicked on it, directly under the asking price is the Zillow Zestimate: $396,500. Yes, you read that right, Three hundred ninety-six THOUSAND, five hundred dollars.

Now, I realize Zillow’s algorithms have what they claim to be somewhere between a 7-11% margin of error, but this one is off by 88.27%. OFF BY ALMOST 90% OF VALUE. Hm. Think something might not be right?

Yet Automated Valuation Systems are the way banks are doing quick appraisal reviews, and no wonder they may be coming in low.

I’ve discussed the Zillow Zestimates in the past, beginning with Zillow Zestimates for Towson Real Estate May Be Misleading. I have come across a large number that were not close to a selling price of a home.

Then, I had communications with some Zillow executives, where some light was shed on why it is possible they are off in our area, which I discussed in Misleading Towson Zillow Zestimates Explained Further.

Zestimates started to complicate things further as the market began to drop, because banks began to reduce Home Equity Lines of Credit, and were using Desktop Valuations to do so. When one of my clients called his bank, his loan officer pulled up Zillow & told him that’s why it had been dropped. (See Incorrect Towson Zillow Zestimate Strike Again.)

Earlier this year, Zillow updated their Algorithms to try to correct some of the problems. For the Baltimore metropolitan area, according to the site’s “Zestimate Accuracy,” Zestimates are within 20% of an actual sales price only 78.3% of the time (with a 7.9% margin of error).

For a $200,000 house, being 20% below would bring the price down to $160,000. Above, that price (which would make a seller happy, but not a buyer or appraiser), would be $240,000. That’s a tremendous difference!

Real estate is very local. Even street-by-street or neighborhood-by-neighborhood within a zip code can have majorly different values.

If you would like an accurate Towson home value estimate, please contact me. I can help you anywhere in the Baltimore real estate market area, or if you are in a different state, I can refer you to an agent anywhere across the country.

Mays Chapel Condo for Sale

Mays Chapel offers condos, townhouses, and apartments as a planned-unit community built by Keelty.

One fantastic Mays Chapel condo for sale is 12204 Burncourt Road #301.

This third floor unit is amazingly clean, well maintained, and loved. This building is one of the few that has front-to-back units, meaning you get trees and privacy in the back, plus you can have a cross breeze from the front!

Don’t miss this beautiful third floor Mays Chapel Condo with cathedral ceilings and private feel! 12204 Burncourt Rd #301 is superb!

12204 Burncourt Rd #301 – Mays Chapel Condo
Timonium, MD 21093 – Offered at $215,000.
Withdrawn from the Market

• Download the Brochure (PDF)
• Schedule an Appointment
• Ask a Question

Explore this wonderful Timonium condo for sale at $215,000…

• Main Floor
• Neighborhood

Mays Chapel Condo in Timonium, Maryland

This condo, built in 1997, is located in the Burncourt Condominium community in Timonium, Maryland in Baltimore County. This condo backs to trees and is on a street with other four level buildings.

Located just across Roundwood Rd from the Mays Chapel Pool, and around the corner from the Roundwood Shopping Center and a very short distance to 83N and South, this home is very convenient!

Main Floor

 

Neighborhood: Timonium Real Estate in Baltimore County

The Burncourt Condominium community is located in the Mays Chapel North planned unit community, off West Padonia Rd in the 21093 zip code.

Mays Chapel North is home to the Roundwood Shopping Center, which has a Graul’s Supermarket, Graul’s Wine Shop, a hair salon, called The Salon at Mays Chapel, a Rite Aid Pharmacy, and Restaurant Sabor for fine casual dining. The Mays Chapel Pool offers a banquet room for rent for parties and events.

Timonium is convenient to highways for access to Downtown Baltimore as well as up towards Pennsylvania. It is an ideal location for many! Join the numerous happy Timonium homeowners. You’ll be glad you did!

11615 Silvermaple Ct – Hunters Run

11615 Silvermaple Ct is a single family home in Hunt Valley Station. *UPDATE: SOLD 8/31/11*

It is on the market for $524,000.

11615 Silvermaple is a four bedroom home with a possible 5th bedroom and full bath in the lower level.

It has a large screened in porch with cathedral ceiling, updated kitchen with stainless appliances, hardwood floors throughout the first floor, plus a family room off the kitchen with wood burning fireplace. According to the public records, the square footage on the upper two levels is 2,198, with an additional 1,132 square feet in the lower level. It is a Ryland built home on a cul de sac.

This Hunters Run Colonial has so much to offer.

Currently there are three other single family homes on the market in the Hunters Run neighborhood at 11513 Hunters Run Drive for $530,000 (now under contract), and 1110 Walnut Wood Drive for $619,900 (now sold), which has now gone under contract, and 1210 Maple Leaf Ct for $505,000.

For more information on 11615 Silvermaple Ct or other Hunters Run houses, contact me. I know the neighborhood well!

Listing courtesy of Marcus-Boyd Realty

1210 Maple Leaf Ct — Hunt Valley Station

*UPDATE: Withdrawn from the market 12/17/11*

1210 Maple Leaf Ct is a four bedroom single family home in Hunters Run.

1210 Mapleleaf Court is a Ryland built Colonial in Hunt Valley Station, and is on the market for $485,000. According to the public records, it has 2,064 square feet on the first two levels. It has hardwood floors throughout the first floor, including the kitchen.

Located on a cul de sac, off of another dead end street, there is no through traffic! I actually sold their neighbor’s house at 1212 Maple Leaf Ct in 2009!

Currently, there are three other Hunt Valley Station single family homes for sale at 11513 Hunters Run Drive, (which recently settled), 1110 Walnut Wood Drive, which also recently settled, and 11615 Silvermaple Court for $524,000, now sold/settled as well. Multiple homes in Hunters Run have sold in the past year, and a competitive market analysis can be run to show true value. The styles & builders vary, so there are many details that go into figuring value on these homes.

Contact me for more information on 1210 Maple Leaf Ct and Hunters Run homes. I know the community well!

Home Listing courtesy of Yerman, Witman, Gaines & Conklin.

2119 Kimrick Place – Valleywood Townhouse
Timonium, MD 21093 — Offered at $329,900.
**SOLD**

**SOLD**

UNDER CONTRACT ONLY 12 DAYS ON THE MARKET!**

• Download the Brochure (PDF)
• Schedule an Appointment
• Ask a Question

Explore this wonderful Timonium home for sale at $329,900…

• First Floor
• Second Floor
• Finished Basement
• Exterior
• Neighborhood

(Click on Any Picture to Enlarge)

Valleywood Townhouse in Timonium, Maryland

This townhouse, built in 1979, is located in the Valleywood at Five Farms community in Timonium, Maryland in Baltimore County. A court location backing to trees and up from another quiet street of houses, this home is ideal!

Located just across Timonium Rd from Valley Field North Park where there is a playground and fields, and a very short distance to 83N and South, shopping, and York Rd, this home is very convenient!

First Floor

Second Floor

Lower Level

Neighborhood: Timonium Real Estate in Baltimore County

The Valleywood at Five Farms community is located off West Timonium Rd at the intersection of Thornton Rd in the 21093 zip code.  The three streets that make up the community are non-through streets, so traffic is minimal! It is a tucked away suburban oasis close to shopping as well as larger communities.

Timonium is convenient to highways for access to Downtown Baltimore as well as up towards Pennsylvania. It is an ideal location for many! Join the numerous happy Timonium homeowners. You’ll be glad you did!

1110 Walnutwood Drive – Hunters Run

1110 Walnutwood Drive is a beautiful Hunters Run house, and is on the market for $619,900. **UPDATE 7/26/11: SOLD!**

Located at the corner of Silvermaple, it has a convenient location & beautifully landscaped yard!

This is a Ryland “Calvert” model, the largest the builder built in the Hunters Run community.

Gleaming hardwood floors are showcased on the first floor, including the two story great room!

The owners have completely redone the kitchen, knocking out a wall and adding granite counters & beautiful cabinetry. This leads to the laundry room the garage.

The powder room right off the kitchen is nicely designed and tastefully done as well. The lower level has been finished with a bedroom and full bath, plus a recreation room!

Upstairs has been redone as well — the master bath has beautifully done tile work and marble.

This is a spectacular Hunt Valley Station house. Currently there are three other single family homes on the market in the Hunters Run neighborhood at 11513 Hunters Run Drive for $530,000, 1210 Maple Leaf Ct for $505,000, and 11615 Silvermaple Ct for $524,000.

For more information on 1110 Walnut Wood Drive or other Hunters Run houses, contact me. I know the neighborhood well!

Listing courtesy of Long & Foster Real Estate, Inc.

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