Experts have revised their US home sales forecast for 2023.
At the beginning of 2023, 27 research firms had 27 different 2023 US Home Sales Forecast predictions.
By the beginning of February 2023, Goldman Sachs had revised their 2023 Housing Forecast.
By the end of February 2023, people were wondering if the US Housing Market were going to crash.
Here we are in September, what are economists thinking now?
Goldman Sachs, who forecast declines multiple times no longer think home prices will fall this year. “We are revising our home price forecasts higher, to 1.8% for full-year 2023…” said Vinay Viswanathan of Goldman Sachs. Goldman Sachs originally forecast an average of 7.6% price decline from 2022, then adjusted their outlook on January 10th, reducing that price decline to an average of 6.1%. Then, on January 23, Goldman Sachs adjusted their forecast again, reducing their forecast of a price decline in 2023 to 2.6%. Now, two-thirds of the way through the year, they expect to see a slight increase, not a decrease.
Morgan Stanley, who in the beginning of the year predicted an 8% drop in their 2023 forecast now says via their research team, “We forecast house prices in 2023 to finish the year flat versus 2022 before falling 2% in 2024 as affordability continues to adjust slowly back to long-run averages and inventories begin a slow climb off multi-decade lows.”
Realtor.com initially forecast the median price of existing homes rising 5.4% this year, but adjusted that downward to a loss of -0.6% in June 2023.
NAR, the National Association of REALTORS® forecast a slight increase of 1.2% to median home prices. They have adjusted their forecast as of July 2023 to a very slight loss of -0.4%.
What does this mean for the Towson real estate market?
First, we can’t take US housing market forecasts as absolutely truth. They are “forecasts,” meaning they are what people, analyzing data, think *may* happen.
At the beginning of the year, we had 27 research teams come up with 27 different forecasts. Most of the forecasts were not close to where we are at this point in the year. We still have just over three months to go, and many forecasts have been adjusted since they have not been correct so far.
For the first time in years, we saw an August slow-down, which we had not seen since 2020.
The last few months of this year will be interesting to watch.
Your Timonium neighborhood may be different than a Towson neighborhood just down the street. Real estate is truly very, very local. Contact me to help you navigate this changing Timonium real estate market!