What will happen in the 2024 real estate market?

With multiple research firms with different forecasts weighing in, the guess is probably somewhere in the middle of the predictions.

Economists at Realtor.com think that the median price of existing homes will drop 1.7% this year, with mortgage rates averaging 6.8%.

CoreLogic, which is another company widely known for their market predictions, thinks we will see home prices rise 2.5% this year. (Note that CoreLogic’s prediction is November-November.)

NAR, which is short for the National Association of REALTORS(R), believes there will be a large increase of 13.5%, with interest rates averaging 6.3%.

Freddie Mac, which is a mortgage financing company, has home prices rising, up 2.8%. Freddie Mac believes interest rates will average around 6%.

Zillow forecasts a very slight drop of 0.2% from November 2023-November 2024.

Wells Fargo has the view of home prices rising 2.5% in 2024.

Goldman Sachs, the investment banking firm, forecasts an very slight price decline from 2023, though that has changed from a very slight increase predicted in December 2023.

Morgan Stanley indicates that in 2024, they expect to see a drop of 3% for home prices.

To me, what the above confirms is that no one can know exactly what is going to happen. Top economists have widely varying views on what the 2024 real estate market will look like.

Many of the economists interviewed do clarify that they are looking at the overall market. There are areas where they foresee greater decline, but other areas where there may still be pent-up demand and little inventory, which would have those markets looking different than others.

Last year, most all of these forecasts were adjusted throughout the year. I expect to see the same this year.

What does this mean for the Towson real estate market?

I think it means that prices and demand will fluctuate depending on interest rates and supply of homes for sale.

Each week may be different, and we may see seasonal disruptions. 2023 was a difficult year for home sales due to higher interest rates and lack of inventory. I see the potential for more of that to come, but with interest rates at least being more palatable to many homebuyers – but this may also cause higher demand and competition for a low inventory market.

Your Towson neighborhood may be different than a Timonium neighborhood just up the street. Real estate is very local. Call me to help you navigate this changing Timonium real estate market!